The Cantina HasLab Has A Slow Launch

While there is virtually zero doubt that the Cantina HasLab will get funded, it is still interesting to compare the current campaign to the Ghost and the Razor Crest HasLabs. And when you do you cannot fail but notice how the 2024 crowdfunding campaign is off to a much slower start than the either the Ghost or the Razor Crest. What does that mean? How do the numbers compare? Click through for more!

UPDATED!

Not as sexy maybe?

So how do the campaigns compare?

We are currently on day 4, Friday was day 1, Saturday day 2 and so on. And while day 4 is not quite over yet it is interesting to see where both the Ghost and Razor Crest were at the end of their fourth day!

The Razor Crest had 7,604 backers after day 4, and was fully funded on day 2 even, but mininum backers were 6,000.
The Ghost had 7,770 backers on day 4 and was funded on day 5 when it had 8,370 backers. The Razor Crest had 8,472 in comparison.

In the end the Razor Crest would have 28,893 backers and the Ghost 21,768. The Razor Crest unlocked its last tier on day 43 of the campaign, which ran for 46 days. The Ghost unlocked its final tier on day 48, which was the last day of its campaign.

In comparison, with still some hours to go, the Cantina is at 4,091 backers, at current rates it may have something like 4,300-4,400 after day 4. It is doubtful it will add almost another 4,000 backers by tomorrow, so that means it will not get funded on day 5, in fact, it may take a good while longer to get funded, because we are now entering the phase where these crowdfunding campaigns usually slow down considerably, in fact, the Cantina has already slowed down considerably, much more so than the Ghost and Razor Crest did at this point in time. Also, this campaign is considerably shorter, with just 31 days compared to the 46 and 48 for the Razor Crest and Ghost respectively.

The Cantina is off to a slow start – UPDATE: actual backer count is even less, about 4,180

On the last day of the campaign the Razor Crest added 7,487 backers, the Ghost 6,827.

What does this mean?

The future is notoriously difficult to predict, but in my mind there’s zero doubt the Cantina will get funded. However, given the length of the campaign and given the pretty slow start, the Cantina currently has roughly 54% of backers the Razor Crest had at the same time and 53% of the Ghost’s numbers (this may increase to 57% come midnight ET), it could very well be that unlocking all tiers may be out of reach or at least it may be a very close call. The Ghost, which was off to a great start, slowed down a lot and only unlocked its final tier on the last day. If the Cantina experiences a similar slowdown, and from experience we can say that will almost certainly be the case, it needs to have a higher average number of backers, especially since this campaign is about 1/3 shorter, to have a chance of unlocking all tiers.

If the Razor Crest’s final day numbers are somewhat of an upper limit, let’s round that up to 8,000 even, the Cantina must have at least 9,000 backers going into its last day. A more realistic number is 10,000. And even then it could be a very close call. So 12k or even 13k would be better.

The Ghost had 14,941 backers going into its last day of the campaign, the Razor Crest had 21,406.

After day 4 up to day 47 (before the final day) the Ghost added 7,161 backers or roughly 167 backers per day. If we apply that same average to the Cantina and round things up a bit it would go into  its last day with about 8,700 backers (roughly 60% of what the Ghost had).  Meaning, it would have to about double its backer count on the last day to unlock all tiers. Given how even the Razor Crest only added another 7,487 backers this could prove to be difficult. And if the average backers per day for the Cantina remain well below the Ghost’s average the numbers could be even lower, meaning, if things are really slowing down, that on the last day only the Cantina itself may get unlocked.

Now this campaign IS different. It is shorter, for one. But the overall dynamic will be the same… rapid start, considerable slowdown after day 4 or 5, long doldrums where only few backers each day are added and then in the last 48 hours things pick up again and both the Ghost and the Razor Crest had more backers on their last day than on the first.

So what does it all mean?

I believe this time there may be a non-zero chance the Cantina may be the first TVC HasLab ever not to unlock all tiers. Of course Hasbro can always have an impact on the campaign. They can announce more tiers, add more things to the standard offering, to boost the numbers. They could also arbitrarily extend the campaign and say it does run for 46-48 days after all.

Still, I find it highly interesting that the Cantina, which I thought would be super popular, is off to a much slower start than both the Ghost and Razor Crest. The question is: why? Are spaceships simply more popular? Have hardcore fans changed their attitude when it comes to Star Wars? Is it the money? Is it the space required to display the set?
Also: both the Razor Crest and the Ghost were made for current shows on Disney+ as well. The Cantina, like the Barge, is something for OT fans only. The Barge ended up having 8,810 backers, but this was when HasLab was still all new and with fewer countries having access to it. But perhaps Hasbro aiming for 17k backers for all tiers for a strict OT only project without media support is more ambitious than they thought.

Do not panic yet though, but keep it in your mind that maybe this time around some tiers may prove to be somewhat elusive. If, and I mean IF, the current campaign does not considerably pick up speed or experiences as much of a slowdown as the Ghost getting to 17,000 backers may be too ambitious. I will keep an eye on things and will aim to provide weekly updates to see how the Cantina compares to the Ghost and Razor Crest. Of course, those comparisons will be somewhat off because of the much shorter duration, which, as I said, also means the Cantina MUST have considerably better weekly numbers than both other projects for it to unlock everything. But so far… the numbers are 46% worse.

Razor Crest Day 4 average/day: 1,901
Ghost Day 4 average/day: 1,942
Cantina Day 4 average/day: 1,100 (est.) – UPDATE: 1,045, only a little more than half of what the other two projects had at this point

What do you think the reason is the Cantina is off to such a slow start? Was the allure of the Tonnika sisters overestimated? Are people not all that much into a gigantic playset when compared to a spaceship? Are they running out space after three enormous TVC HasLabs? Or are people slowly falling out of love with hyper expensive Star Wars toys that aren’t really toys?

Let’s see where we are come next Monday! Maybe things will look a lot better by then. And if not… I think Hasbro may throw in a few more goodies sooner than later.

UPDATE: my estimate was overly optimistic, the Cantina ended day 4 with about 4,180 backers. Roughly 54% of what the Ghost had at that point. If the Cantina remains on this trajectory it would end up with a little less than 12,000 backers, meaning only Greedo would be unlocked as an additional figure. More next Monday!

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