The Cantina HasLab Day 11 [Updated]

As promised here is the next major update for the Cantina HasLab. Day 11 is almost over, so what are the numbers now, one week later? Click through for all the relevant data!

Update with Thursday numbers in the comments!

$399.99

This is how things are after day 11, the final day 11 numbers are an estimate, current actual backer count is 5.065, my estimate may be off by maybe 10 people, but it won’t make much of a difference.

After day 11 the Cantina has 55% of the Ghost at the same time and 53,7% of the Razor Crest’s numbers. The Black Series Rancor had a little over 4k backers on day 11, so the Cantina is well ahead of that.

Since last monday the Cantina added 890 backers.
The Ghost added 1,444 backers and the Razor Crest 1,802. So the Cantina merely added 61.7% of the Ghost’s numbers. The Cantina is ever so slowly picking up speed, as in it is not lagging behind the Ghost as much anymore, but only very moderately so. Last Monday the Cantina had 54% of the Ghost’s numbers, it merely managed to gain one point on the Ghost what basically amounts to barely just one half of the Ghost’s numbers.

At this point it is still very likely the Cantina will get backed, with one caveat: the Rancor began losing backers roughly 2/3 through the campaign when it became obvious the various tiers may be forever out of reach. New tier reveals gave the Rancor a boost, but this quickly reversed when more and more people realized the tiers will never be unlocked anyway. Still, the Rancor always made it, in the end the HasLab ran short of a little more than 400 backers, so it almost made it across the finish line to at least get funded. The Rancor needed 9,000 however. So when even a super lackluster HasLab almost made it chances are good a Cantina HasLab that may not be as desired as the previous TVC items will be unlocked, especially since it requires only 8,000 instead of 9,000 backers.

But we still need to see if anything like with the Rancor may happen here. While the Cantina is on its way to be fully backed the overall situation is still the same as last Monday, tier 1, Greedo, may barely be in reach if things go really well towards the end, tiers 2 and 3 are probably completely out of reach.

The Cantina needs another 2,930 backers to get funded or 139.5 backers per day. Last Monday it was 136.4 backers.  Tier 1 would need 5,930 backers, which seems possible if the boost on the last day is strong enough, but 8,930 and 11,930 backers for the other tiers seems very ambitious given how the Cantina consistenly only has a fraction of the Ghost’s numbers, this would have to change quickly. And the question is what effect out of reach tiers could have on the campaign once more people realize they will at best get one extra figure. And the longer the Cantina takes to be funded the question is how people will react to that as well. Remember, at this point in time both the Ghost and the Razor Crest had long been funded.

With how things are going the Cantina may get backed just a couple of days before the deadline, if at all, and there is a possibility the Cantina may enter its final day without being unlocked yet. If this were like any other HasLab the boost should then get it funded, but since the tiers may be out of reach this could seriously impact things. Until day 28 the Ghost added another 1,326 backers, but the campaign for the Ghost ran considerably longer and thus while the overall dynamic, strong start, slow middle, strong finish will be identical the Cantina’s campaign is so much shorter so it could very well be that the Cantina will add more backers than the Ghost, relatively speaking, so comparing the two campaigns will no longer really make sense once we enter the last week, it would be better then to compare the Cantina’s last week to the Ghost’s last week. And the Ghost’s final week numbers were even a bit better than week 1 numbers! So if the Cantina adds maybe 1000 backers in week 2 and 3 and then perhaps 4,500 in the final week that would be 5,500 additional backers, or 10,570. Falling short of tier 1. Much depends on weeks 2 and 3 now. If the campaign can pick up some speed the final week may not be so much of an uphill battle. But if not… the Rancor set a sad precedence when it even lost backers and more and more people became disillusioned about its prospects. You may argue that the Rancor was much more in need to get the tiers to become attractive, while the Cantina with the Tonnikas and Wuher has enough appeal on its own. In short: we have to wait and see!

Razor Crest Day 11 average: 859.1
Ghost Day 11 average: 837.6
Cantina Day 11 average: 460.9

I still believe that Hasbro may spring into action. Unless they are ok with just getting the basic Cantina funded without any of the figures. What that means for future Cantina patron mainline releases is anyone’s guess. And what effect that could have on people backing out again or not backing in the first place if they come to believe Hasbro may not really support the Cantina with some more of the obscure patrons.

I think it could be a close call, but unless people start backing out again I think the Cantina has a really good chance to get funded.

More again next Monday, when we’ll be at the halfway point!

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