The Cantina HasLab Day 18

We are more than halfway through the campaign, only 14 days left for the Cantina! How are things? Click through for more!

Out of reach?

Ok, this is where things are currently, after 18 days, with 14 more days to go!

Click to enlarge

The Cantina is almost 72% of the way to its goal of getting funded. If nothing spectacular happens the Cantina should get funded. It is however still uncertain how many tiers, if any, will get unlocked.

The Cantina added about 650 backers since the last update, which is actually about 215 more than the Ghost added between days 12 and 18 of its campaign. However, with the Ghost campaign being so much longer we are now reaching a point where directly comparing the HasLabs makes less and less sense. Starting now I will compare the final two weeks of each campaign.

The Cantina had a sudden spike of a few hundred backers in just one day this past week. It is unknown why this happened. However, both the Ghost and the Razor Crest and even the Black Series Rancor showed the exact same behavior in their campaigns, a random spike of a few hundred backers out of nowhere in an otherwise slow period.

For the Cantina it was on day 15, for the Rancor on  day 13, the Ghost on day 20 and the Razor Crest on day 19. This was and is either the result of some promotion on some other website or social media, or, another theory by me, maybe Hasbro does not add all backers from around the world every day, but adds a bunch of backers from one or more regions around this point in the campaign. Whatever the reason, all HasLabs basically show this behavior and all HasLabs showed normal, pretty slow growth before and after this spike.

And the Cantina is no different, in the past three days, since the sudden spike, growth has stalled and only a few dozen Cantinas were backed in total since then.

This is no surprise though, we have reached a point in the campaign where growth is usually the slowest, however, the Cantina also has the shortest campaign and speed must pick up again soon. While the Cantina itself will almost certainly get funded the backer tally must increase sufficiently for the boost on the last two days or so to have any chance of unlocking tiers.

Tier #1, Greedo, is still very well within reach. And unless the Cantina is a repeat of the GI Joe Skystriker which more than doubled its backer count on the last day, Tiers #2 and #3 are probably out of reach. And since the Cantina has substantially fewer backers than both the Ghost (59%) and Razor Crest (53%) I find it unlikely the Cantina can get as many backers on the final day as either the Ghost or Razor Crest. Even if the Cantina enters its last day with 8k backers, a repeat of the Razor Crest performance (8,257 backers on the last day) would not be sufficient to unlock tier #3. But as I said, at this point I find it unlikely the Cantina can get even close to the Razor Crest numbers on the last day. And we still have to wait and see what happens if people begin to believe most tiers will be out of reach and whether or not this may have an impact.

The Rancor was sunk by this, once people realized the tiers are out of reach collectors began cancelling their orders, numbers declined and the boost on the final day was not enough to secure funding. But the Cantina has more backers than the Rancor at this point had, but not THAT many more, about 900 or so. But it also only needs 8k vs the 9k the Rancor needed. So again, it should get funded, even with the bad numbers the Rancor had in its last two weeks (with backer tally actually declining).

The Cantina is also slowly gaining ground on the Ghost, with now 59%, when it was 54% previously. However, the Ghost had its sudden spike a bit later and we have to see how things develop in the next few days, it is possible the Cantina may fall behind a bit more again.

As of now the Cantina needs 161.71 daily backers to secure funding. If we look at the Ghost’s numbers in its penultimate week it added 878 backers. The Cantina needs to pick up speed considerably to get anywhere close to that in the next 7 days.

And remember, both the Ghost and Razor Crest had long been funded at this point in time, so on day 18 of their campaigns and beyond it was only about stretch goals. It may very well be the Cantina will only secure funding on the final day (which is currently the most likely scenario). So the overall dynamics may be quite different this time. Maybe more like the Rancor than the Ghost. The Rancor added about 3k backers on its last day, about 500 backers short of getting funded. In fact, between day 11 and day 18 of its campaign the Rancor added about as many backers as the Cantina. Its growth too stalled after its spike only to begin losing backers after day 28 to never recover from that.

I do not want to scare you, but this is also still within the realm of possibility. We will know for sure next week! I will keep you posted! If growth is still almost at a standstill in the next 7 days the Cantina may enter its final day with less than 7k backers. Maybe even only about 6k. I will post an update in the comments on Thursday as usual, things should already be clearer by then.

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